For the most talented fillies in training, the Classic contests of the 1000 Guineas, Oaks, and St. Leger stand above all others in terms of the prestige bestowed upon the winner. The first of these historic events takes place at the headquarters of the flat racing game in late April/early May each year, as Newmarket plays host to the 1000 Guineas.
The female-only equivalent of the 2000 Guineas is steeped in history, having made its debut over 200 years ago in 1814. Initially awarding 1000 Guineas to the winner, the prize pool has grown to £500,000 (2024), but the value of a win extends far higher due to the impact on the breeding value of the winning mare and her sire. As one of the most coveted fillies titles of the season, it takes a special performer to demonstrate the winning mix of speed and stamina required to prevail, with the brilliant trio of Minding, Winter, and Love all featuring on the 21st Century roll of honour.
In common with the colt’s Classic, the position of this race in the season often asks punters to either side with the two-year-old form or take a chance that a runner may have improved beyond their rivals over the winter months. The answer to that question inevitably requires a degree of guesswork, making this a tough event to call. Here, we look back at the 24 editions between 2000 and 2023 and highlight a selection of stats and trends which may assist in identifying the most likely contenders.
Top Trainers
Top of the table – as in so many Group 1 races – is the master of Ballydoyle, Aidan O’Brien. A genius with the colts, the 43-time Classic winner is equally proficient with the beautifully bred fillies under his care. Ahead of the 2024 edition, O’Brien lies two behind Robert Robson in the all-time 1000 Guineas list, but it would take a brave man to bet against him overtaking that record before he heads into retirement.
No one comes close to O’Brien’s recent record, with Godolphin handler Saeed bin Suroor being the only other trainer to pick up more than one win in the current century. The successes of André Fabre and Criquette Head-Maarek suggest that the French raiders are worth a second look when tackling this race instead of the equivalent contest on home soil.
Leading Jockeys
No surprise to see Aidan O’Brien’s stable jockey, Ryan Moore, sitting atop the jockeys pile. Three of Moore’s winning rides came aboard O’Brien-trained fillies, with his fourth provided by the David Wachman filly Legatissimo (2015).
Two of Frankie Dettori’s wins came for Godolphin, with the third aboard the apparent O’Brien second-string, Mother Earth in 2021, with Moore opting to ride Santa Barbara that year. Wayne Lordan’s two victories also came aboard O’Brien runners: Winter (2017), who beat the choice of Ryan Moore, Rhododendron, into second, and Hermosa in 2019, with Moore back in sixth aboard Just Wonderful, proving that even the best in the business don’t make the right choice every time.
Top Sires
Galileo’s influence on the breed is once again in evidence in this race, with the late Ballydoyle flagbearer out on his own at the head of affairs. With 2024 being the final year in which the legendary sire will have a Classic runner, following his death in 2021, he has one last chance to add to his tally.
Predicting which sires will take up the baton isn’t straightforward. Perennial champion sire contender Dubawi is yet to make an impact in this, as are Galileo’s high-profile sons Frankel, Australia, and New Approach. As former 2000 Guineas winners sired by Galileo, it will be interesting to follow the progress of the progeny of Frankel and Churchill in the coming years.
Finishing Position Last Time Out
The results in our sample confirm what logic suggests i.e., it is tough to win one of the most competitive fillies events of the season on the back of a subpar performance. Over half of the winners also scored on their previous racecourse outing, whilst 20 of 24 (83.33%) at least managed to finish in the first three. No winner finished outside of the first six last time out.
Focus on those Proven at Group Level
A previous Group 1 win should always count as a positive but isn’t essential in this race. Only 25% of winners had registered a top-level success – although only 12 had run at Group 1 level before the 1000 Guineas. Extending the net to those with one or more wins at Group 3 level or above brings in 18 of 24 (75%) winners.
Fate of the Favourite
Races at the start of the flat campaign, in which many runners are making their seasonal return, are notoriously tricky for punters. Such has been the case in the 1000 Guineas. The 2000-2023 period saw only four winning favourites for a strike rate of 16.67% (around half the average across all races) and a loss of £10.40 to £1 level stakes.
11 winners returned a single-figure SP; 10 were between 10/1 and 16/1, with the remaining three at 20/1 or greater. Billesdon Brook caused the biggest shock when defying odds of 66/1 in 2018.
Other Stats
- Only 7 of 24 winners had previously won over a mile. 20 of 24 had won over 7f or further
- 12 of 24 had previously won at Newmarket
- 11 of 24 won on their first start of the season
- 17 of 24 had an official rating of 106 or higher going into the race
- The Nell Gwyn Stakes was the most popular route into the race, with four winners running in that 7f Rowley Mile event on their previous racecourse appearance; The Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial and the French event of the Prix Imprudence came next with three winners each
- 14 of 24 winners had five or fewer career starts. 23 of 24 had 10 or fewer