The flat season officially kicks off with the Lincoln meeting at Doncaster in late March/early April each year, but for many fans, events on the level only really begin to hit top gear when the Classics stride into view. First up, it’s the most coveted one-mile event of the year for the three-year-old colts, as the annual array of regally bred sorts lock horns in the 2,000 Guineas.
Held over the straight mile on the Rowley Mile course, the race offers £500,000 in total prize money. However, a 2,000 Guineas triumph is worth significantly more than that, thanks to the immense breeding value bestowed upon the winner. No surprise then that the roll of honour features many legendary names, with Camelot, Sea The Stars, and Frankel being the pick of the 21st century Guineas heroes.
Coming so early in the season, many runners take in the Guineas on their seasonal return – a factor which can make the race difficult to weigh up. Will the best two-year-olds remain the best at three? Or will they be overtaken by rivals who have developed over the winter? Here, we look at the 24 editions between 2000 and 2023 and pick out a selection of stats and trends which may assist in identifying the winner of the opening Classic of the British flat racing season.
Top Trainers
There are no surprises at the top of the table, with Aidan O’Brien boasting more wins than the second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth-placed trainers combined. Having also sent out King of Kings to claim the 1998 edition, O’Brien is the most successful trainer in the long history of the race.
O’Brien dominance aside, the home team haven’t fared too badly of late, with 10 of the 24 winners in our sample hailing from a British yard, compared to 13 for Ireland and one for France.
Leading Jockeys
Wins have been shared around a little more evenly amongst the riders, with only Kieren Fallon boasting more than two successes – three of those wins coming for Aidan O’Brien and two for Sir Michael Stoute. Ryan Moore may be frustrated to be stuck on two, having lost out to the apparent O’Brien second-string in 2019. Jem Robinson (from the 1800s) is the most successful jockey in the history of the race, having picked up nine wins between 1825 and 1848.
Rating of Winner
The late Galileo and Dubawi have featured towards the summit of the stallions table in the 21st century and duly sit joint top in this event. The influence of the Galileo line is much stronger than it may first appear. Of the sires in the above table, Sadler’s Wells is the father of Galileo, New Approach and Frankel are his sons, and Dawn Approach is his grandson. Frankel and Dawn Approach also boast the distinction of winning the race and siring a 2,000 Guineas winner. Still not done, Galileo also sired the dam of the winner four times between 2014 and 2019.
Finishing Position Last Time Out
A positive performance on their most recent racecourse appearance has been all but essential in this race. An impressive 17 of 24 winners (70.83%) also scored last time out, whilst 23 of 24 (95.83%) at least finished in the top three. The one exception to this is 2023 champ Chaldean, who decided to deposit Frankie Dettori into the turf in the 2023 Greenham Stakes before making amends when it mattered most.
Proven Class a Major Positive
When tackling one of the most prestigious Group class events of the season, logic suggests that a proven ability to thrive against a high calibre of opposition would count as a positive. This theory is backed up by the results, with 50% of winners already having at least one Group 1 success on their CV. All bar two had previously scored at Listed level or above.
Fate of the Favourite
The standout stars from the previous year invariably head the betting for this contest, even with the question of how well they have trained on from two to three often being a guessing game. That factor may have a bearing on the relatively poor record of the market leader. Between 2000 and 2023, six favourites landed the odds for a strike rate of 25% and a loss of £6.25 to £1 level stakes.
That said, the market generally does a decent job at assessing the contenders, with 16 of 24 runners returning a single-figure SP, and only three priced higher than 20/1. The biggest shock came in 2014 when Night Of Thunder scored at 40/1.
Other Stats
- 21 of 24 winners had previously won over a trip of 7f or 1m.
- Nine of 24 had previously won at Newmarket.
- 16 of 24 won this on their first start of the season.
- 19 of 24 had four or fewer previous starts.
- The Futurity Trophy was the most common route into the race, with five winners last appearing in that Doncaster highlight. The Greenham Stakes and Dewhurst Stakes came next with three wins apiece.